Head in the Sand: Japan and Russia

Japan’s COVID Crisis and Denial

Last year, Japan announced that it would begin vaccinations of key medical and governmental officials in late February . I predicted sometime in April. I was correct.

Japan is behind every other developed country in the world in responding to the pandemic,even trailing poorer, less developed countries such as Argentina, Belarus, and others. Despite Japan’s wealth and close partnership with the US, which you would think would offer some advantages, it is on roughly the same schedule as Cuba and Venezuela, whose efforts have been hurt by American and European sanctions.

A lot of the fault lies with Japanese bureaucracy, which requires more testing of drugs of any kind. Of course, the COVID vaccines, especially the new mRNA vaccines have not been tested as thoroughly as necessary — but that would take 10 years. Consider that it took almost two decades before oral contraceptives were approved in Japan. Of course, Viagra was approved in just 6 months. But Japan’s bureaucrats really needed that!

Has anything changed since Edo?

Japan’s public policy is as geriatric as its population.

Solutions Next Door

Japan is right next door to Russia, which has the safest and cheapest vaccine on the market — and also one of the most effective — 91.4% after 21 days and 95% after 42 days — almost identical to the much-touted, much-riskier Pfizer vaccine. Russia is more than willing to help. Russia was first to develop a vaccine because in that eminently practical Russian way it went for tried and true, drawing on thirty years of research into adenoviruses and delivery systems.

China is also right next door, too. It adopted a similar strategy using adenoviruses, which are human cold viruses.

As a COVAX partner, it too has offered assistance to any country needing it. In addition, it has vaccinated about a million healthcare workers and “frontline” personal, on schedule to vaccinate 50 million people before Tokyo even begins. That said, the main Chinese vaccine is not as effective as Sputnik V, with an efficacy just over 80% although some countries report up to 92%.

Japan is oblivious: the country might as well be Zambia, except that Zambia is handling the pandemic rather better and is more willing to consider facts and realities.

Throughout the Japanese archipelago, the virus has been spreading and entrenching itself with medical facilities are close to the breaking point. The Prime Minister Suga has said that he was “surprised” by the crisis — and blames the medical community, whose warnings he had repeated ignored.

After a week of cogitation and pressure from prefectural governors, Suga finally declared a “state of emergency”, asking bars, restaurants and coffeeshops to close an hour early. All measures voluntary. With infections soaring, the Japanese government responded quickly — by reducing testing. Guess what? With almost no testing, daily reports of infections dropped. People were reassured. How bad is the situation? No one really knows.

But Japan’s wealthy are reportedly buying Chinese vaccines on the black market.

Over all, Japanese government’s statistics have been head-in-the-sand propaganda from the very start. This year, on January 6, they quoted 1500 positives in Tokyo — out of a sample of perhaps 5000, in a city of over 15 million. The actual number therefore could be anywhere from 100,000 to one million. The theme: media manipulation.

Part of the blame for the sharp surge in infections must go to the government’s ill-advised domestic “Go To” tourism campaign which resulted in the spread of the virus to even remote areas of the archipelago. Quarantine standards for travelers or the infected have been lax resulting in the spread of mutated versions of the virus from abroad.

Epidemiologically, expect a fourfold increase in infections by April when vaccinations start — and more right after that: since vaccines are not fully effective for 6 weeks but encourage a false sense of security, a phenomenon already evident in other countries, and since full scale vaccination is not possible until the summer.

How many people are actually dying from this disease in Japan?

Excess mortality rates are hard to determine but so far consistent with previous years when they should be lower — since flu’ rates for the 2020–21 season have been remarkably low — just 0.5% or previous years — vehicular accidents are down, and alcoholic consumption has dropped.

Sputnik V

As mentioned, Russia has indicated its willingness to supply vaccines to anyone, anywhere. Not just the vaccines but the technology to produce them as in the case of India and South Korea. Recent peer reviewed research substantiates Russia claims — which were pooh-poohed by the Western Media as propaganda.

As I have implied, Japanese bureaucracy owes much to its institutionalization in the Edo period, when the warrior class had no wars to fight and needed to be kept out trouble — as bureaucrats.

The point then was to keep them busy. Meeting, talking and writing documents and regulations for every conceivable thing. Each document had to stamped with a seal. . No single individual wanted to take responsibility for tough decisions –in fact, for any decision at all —since failure could be punished by having to slit open your abdomen. So there had to be consensus and compromise. The emphasis was on agreement — and results be damned. Let the peasants suffer.

Not much has changed. The peasants still suffer. And bureaucrats and government officials fall back on the status quo policies. There is not Shogun but the mentality remains.

Since the Japanese public is among the most compliant in the world — with not much to choose from among political parties in Japan, the government need not fear direct action. Unlike Russia and China, Japan has never had a revolution.

The Japanese have opted for three vaccines — AstraZeneca and the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. AstraZeneca has had problems since it uses a Chimpanzee virus that was once tested unsuccessfully in the search fo Ebola and HIV vaccines. Efficacy is somewhere between 60 and 80%. The Russians offered their research and suggested combining the Chimp virus with a human viral vector. The British took the research — but not the advice. Can’t trust those pesky Ruskies.

Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA technology? While short term side effects seem minimal, nothing can be said with any certainty about long-term effects. In addition, mRNA vaccines require very advanced “cold chain technology”, which makes them unsuitable for poorer countries or rural settings and can lead to problems even in advanced medical systems.. These vaccines are also much more expensive — as much as 10 times more than AstraZeneca — and four or five times more than Sputnik V — despite government subsidies and tax payer support.

So, why have the Japanese opted for Pfizer and Moderna over Sputnik V? Or any of the other vaccines such as those developed in China or Cuba? Is it really just bull — headed denial. One answer is that Japanese Pharma wants mRNA technology. Not for vaccines, but for drug production, cancer detection, and stem cell research.

Second, buy American. Pfizer and Moderna are being peddled by American multinationals. And fallback Japanese policy is always to buy American, even when there are cheaper and more effective substitutes.

Third, and most important, Japan is still an American vassal state, and while the Japanese public has a far more positive view of Russian peoplethan Americans do, with less Russophobic indoctrination by the popular press , Japan must officially hew to the American line, which is, “nothing good can come out of Russia”, as if the country had made no progress since the fall of the USSR.

The Japanese did not even bother to ask the Russians for data.

Living in Japan, I would gladly take a trip to Vladivostok for a jab.

Thank God, there’s a ferry. Help me, Vladimir!