March 25: My Predictions Come True
I’m a media analyst. It might be better to say “information analyst” because my clients pay me to analyze media for real information and look for trends and establish probabilities. Heisenberg uncertainty applies to all forms of information, of course, and “predictions” are just probabilities, which can be changed by just observation. That said, I have a pretty good track record.
My analysis of the direction of the War in Eastern Ukraine, especially Mariupol has proven correct.
Last week, I predicted that the DPR, RF, and Chechens would take Mariupol, as they said they would, in 4 to 7 days.
Naysayers earlier this week pointed out that the Neonazis were still holed up in the city, with perhaps a third of the 450,000 Mariupol population as hostages.
By the fourth day, after my and the DPR prediction, however, it was clear that the NeoNazis had no escape.
Time therefore was on the side of the RF and the DPR and the Chechens who would prioritize humanitarian concerns and, once they had gotten as many people out of the city to safety as possible, they would move in to eradicate the Nazis nests — no quarter given. My prediction by Monday was that Mariupol would effectively fall by today, Friday (Japan Time). Again, no quarter given.
Yesterday, the DPR gave the NeoNazis an ultimatum— surrender before midnight — or die. A lot had already tried to escape, some in women’s clothes. Many had been caught. Not many surrendered obviously . So, overnight a lot of them died. No quarter.
Night attacks require expertise and equipment, which the Russians have and are very effective on an enemy under seige. Soldiers have to sleep and when they can’t, facing the possibility of constant attack their performance is impaired. They make mistakes and that costs them their lives.
Last night appears to have been slaughter if we are to believe reports from Mariupol of residential buildings taken over the Nazis full of bodies in every room that the Nazis had taken over. Civilian causalities were low since most had been expelled to give the defenders freer reign. Donbass reporters called it “murder”, which, of course, it was although for the Eastern Ukrainians this was not a condemnation.
Intel Slava Z, [3/25/2022 2:52 AM]
We broke into the very center of Mariupol today. “Azov” and soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were knocked out of here at night.
As promised yesterday No one was taken prisoner. The corpses of Nazis are on almost every floor in high-rise buildings.
The RF are not trumpeting the numbers killed. They are not counting — they don’t need to — knowing that the UAF knows.
You reap what you sow.
Of course, there will still be Nazis hiding out here and there and they still hold some villages, towns and cities, such as Odessa. They will continue killing. But it is a losing game.
Mariupol is important because it sends a message — or messages. Withdraw or die. Stay? Surrender or die. Propaganda is virtuality. But Death is real.
Let us keep in mind, that Putin is a lawyer with immense respect for law — including the rules of war — but a pragmatist. The Ukrainians and the West have broken all the rules — and what goes round, comes round. As history shows, Putin is principled but he does what he has to do, certain of his moral ground.
A message has also been given uncategorically to foreign mercenaries. Stay and you die. We know where you are. We know who you are. The famed Canadian sniper, Wali, should have paid attention, killed 20 minutes after arrival on the battlefield. The UAF has taken to mutilating the faces of foreign mercenaries and especially foreign military advisors to prevent identification. Yes, Canadians, Brits and Americans are dying in the Ukraine too.
The Russian Duma is passing legislation to set up war crimes tribunals, as are the governments of the DPR and LPR. Hostage taking as practiced by the Ukrainian Nazis is a war crime. Russia, as mentioned before, has no death penalty. The DPR does.
Expect another week of cleanup in Eastern Ukrainian with pressure on Odessa, increasingly isolated and village by village eradication.
Then more and more mobile surgical strikes West and East of the Dnieper, with Kiev and Kharkov kettled.
The map above is in Russian but you can see how the Russians are moving to encircle all of northeastern Ukraine including, I think the west bank of the Dnieper. The threat of a strike from Belarus, forces the UAF to divert resources to the north and west and also deters the Poles from trying to seize Galicia, which Putin, in his rather scholarly analysis of Ukrainian history, has indicated that he doesn’t really think it belongs in the Ukraine. In the end, you may have a rump state west of the Dnieper, which will be mostly agricultural.
Zelensky will keep on declaring victory as the Japanese did until Hirohito surrendered. then it will be the Zelensky Hour on CNN. He doesn’t really care about the Ukraine, which is why his millions are overseas.