Predicting the Future: We’re In Trouble

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I make predictions. It is a kind of hobby.

My day job is in branding and marketing. I am supposed to know when a media strategy is going to work or not . An understanding of human behavior — social anthropology — is the difference between success and failure. So, I am making predictions all the time.

Outside of work, , I stick pretty much to elections, because unlike the stock market, they are…well…predictable on the basis of human behaviors amd upi can see the outcomes very quickly.

Back when, I predicted that Barak Obama would win the Democratic nomination over Hillary. That was a no-brainer. He was a handsome black man with a white mother, just the guy for the Democrats who knew that he despite his slogan “Change you can believe in” he wasn’t going to change anything. He was a classic opportunist who had got ahead by surrendering his principles (if he ever had any) to convenience.

Hillary had the advantage of being a woman, but she was still a Bill Hand Me Down.

I also predicted that while Obama would run to the left, he would govern to the right. As I said, he was and is an opportunist who goes with the flow.“Liberals” don’t want someone who upsets the status quo, they want continuity, consistency, comfort, and the appearance of “progress”. So goodbye to the public option for healthcare. Goodbye to any meaningful change in the economic and financial system.

I predicted Trump would win in a squeaker election. . Nope, he wouldn’t win the popular vote but in the electoral college. That prophesy was contrary to media opinion, of course and many, if not most pollsters.

As I say, I work in marketing and branding. For marketing and branding people, the media are whores. Have a good time but don’t expect anything meaningful. Fake orgasms? Try the New York Times. Use a condom to prevent infection of the Mind.

How did a second rate media personality like the Donald, who doesn’t like to read or think too much, who’s fat and has orange hair do it?

Simple: he ran against the Media and Hillary, a warmongering uber-witch, surely the most unimpressive and unpopular candidate in years, who quite literally stole the Democratic nomination from the Dems only viable option, Bernie Sanders. Over the years, the “Media” have lost a lot of credibility. So calling them on their bullshit goes over well.

Hillary’s only qualification was that she was NOT Donald Trump, a not insignificant factor if you were a typical Democratic voter.

I scored — I got Obama right and Trump’s election.

How about some other “democratic” votes?


Yup, called that one right too. Again, I predicted a squeaker, which would be followed by confusion and ambivalence. All this proved true.

Again, the media had assumed that Brexit would not happen although the polls were ambivalent because the handful of rich guys how own the media benefited hugely from the neoliberal values of the EU. Still there was a lot of anti-EU sentiment, which is why the referendum was held in the meantime. The oligarchs thought the could control the “Mob” through their propaganda organs. . The Mob responded (naturally) by voting to leave the EU. It was, in its way a protest vote.

I also predicted that rise of Corbyn. Now, the The neoliberal Labour Party elite, suffered from the same mental sickness as the Media Oligarchs. They only included Corbyn because as a sop to their nominally leftwing base. Ummm….the “Mob”. They were shocked when he won overwhelmingly and set out to destroy him.

Lesson, never throw shit at the Mob. They throw it back.

I predicted Corbyn would come into power and revolutionize British politics, strengthening the Labour Party as never before.

The constant calumny orchestrated by the Media validated him to his base the same way it validated Trump to his base. Unlike Trump, however Corbyn was a man of principle — a simple, pragmatic guy who had never wavered over many years of public service in his dedication to democracy. Corbyn came close to winning against Theresa May, which I also predicted.

Much as I like Corbyn, I predicted he would also lose against Boris Johnson, who I loathe since his hair reminds me of Donald.

Corbyn failed because of his principles. Early on he needed to have turfed the Blairites from his party. Doing that would have required some nasty business — and Corbyn is nothing if not a gentleman. That was strike one. Strike two was not responding to charges of antisemitism head on, as Zionist intimidation. . Strike three was his idea of another Brexit referendum which alienated Labour supporters in the North.

Also, Bojo may be an asshole but he has a certain “charisma” and is unafraid to bash heads in his own party. Voters saw a bully but a strong leader in him. In Jeremy though saw a nice guy who rides a bicycle and talks to people rather than makes speeches. Nice nice guys finish last.

In Canada, the NDP was running strong against the Liberals at the end of the Harper era. The Liberals fielded certified AirHead Justin Trudeau, whose lck of experience was in proportion to his lack of integrity.

The NDP policies were sensible and progressive and probably would have been implemented. But… the Media hate “socialists”. And in Canada, the media are even more centralized and controlled by corporate interests than in the US.

Again, a no-brainer. The NDP’s Mulcair was a chubby guy with a beard. Trudeau looked a like a male model and had nice hair.

As I write this, I see a pattern. It’s the hair that counts. Trump will win against Biden because he has more hair. Every Oracle of any standing should spend a lot of time studying hair, not just fiddling with bones.

Trudeau’s model was Obama. Run to the Left, govern to the right. So Justin Trudeau, a former High School substitute teacher and trust fund kid, with an unimpressive academic record who seemed to have got into government because it paid better than high school with a less demanding schedule, won over a lawyer-politician with some actual ideas.

Predictably Justin ditched most of his campaign promises just as Barry did and became bottom man to the Donald.

The next Canadian election was also easy to predict. Justin’s honeymoon period ended; people began to notice he was self-indulgent airhead. That should have made it easy for the NDP, except that the NDP had eschewed its socialist roots in favor of liberalism, which meant identity politics, political correctness to a power of S. (I leave you to guess that “S” stands for.

So Canada’s non-socialist socialists nominated Jagmeet Singh, a wealthy Sikh lawyer who wore bespoke three piece suits without socks, pink turbans and a long beard but was comfortably middle of the road. Singh was never going to rock the boat. His image was “interesting” but he wasn’t going to get on GQ with Justin — although he has forced Justin to grow a beard for gravitas. “Principles”. HaHa. I predicted a minority government run by Trudeau, with the NDP just surviving on the basis of anti-Justin sentiment.

In New Zealand, I predicted Jacinda would win — but in a squeaker with a minority government shared with Winston Peter’s New Zealand First, which would limit an really social democratic reforms. That proved the case. On assuming power, she dumped any really progressive policies and contented herself with fine tuning the system.

Elections are pretty easy. Other things not so much.

Two years ago I predicted a pandemic. why? I was writing a series of books on human nature. My research showed that human beings had not evolved to live in mass, high density hierarchical societies. Technology allows civilizations to flout the law of nature for a hew centuries before nature bite back.

All animal populations are self-limiting. One way they self limit part from just exhausting natural food sources is disease. Human beings are no exception. Large, dense populations also promote migrations of animals, which again promotes disease, spreading a disease from one population group to another.

So the human population is out of whack with nature.

The trouble with my prediction was that, unlike elections, I could not predict exactly when the shit would hit the fan.

Now I am not sure that the current “pandemic” is the one that we have to worry about — it is simply not lethal enough. Ahead will be a new disease with a much higher mortality rate. If 4 out of 8 billion die, the world will sigh — with relief.

Trump versus Biden. Wait a bit. And I will give you a prediction. Right now, Trump will win. But a lot can happen in the next few months. One thing for sure, however, the Democratic Party is finished. Might take time — but it is finished.

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Julian Macfarlane

Journalist media analyst, author. Publishes on evolution, psychology, anthropology, zoology, music, art, neurology., geopolitics,.