Every now and again, my clients ask me for political predictions. I haven’t been wrong for a long time. Yeah, I predicted Brexit correctly and Trump and have a better record than Nate Silver, besides being a lot cheaper. Right now, corporate CEOs look at the news media — and it is just very confusing. They just don’t have the time to sort through all the disinformation and misinformation and omissions that the corporate media supply. As card-carrying members of the corporate elite, they know the game.
That’s where I come in. My strong point is media analysis. I am objective. And, as I said, I am cheap.
I look at what the mainstream media are saying — and NOT saying — and sort the contradictions using actual facts, which are usually available through alternative media, which are at pains to document their findings. I don’t trust the NYT or WaPo or Bloombergs, which are always right — except for the 50% of the time when they are wrong.
So…what’s my prediction. In this case: none. This election is 50/50.
Now, the media see things differently. In the case of Trump vs Biden, most of the polls show Biden with an impressive lead. But keep in mind that in the Dem primaries, they showed him with the same level of support — only to see him trounced by just about everyone until the DNC got its act together to do a hatchet job on Bernie.
Back in 2016, the media and their pollsters showed Hillary with an impressive lead too.
Then again, this is NOT 2016! And Biden is not Hillary. And 2020 Trump is not 2016 Trump.
The media clearly regarded 2016 Trump as a joke: nobody would vote for him, they thought.
And, of course, Trump did not win the popular vote. He didn’t have to, to win.
Fact #1: POLITICS IS OPTICS
Hillary had unattractive optics. On camera she had a certain shrewishness that made her unpopular even with female voters. Those pant suits…ugh.
Trump, by contrast, was rather funny and engaging on camera — he was, after all, an entertainer. He could not contain whatever he was thinking at the time, pretty much unscripted. To his base that was “authenticity”. Trump’s style of communication is really the norm, unlike the carefully phrased utterances of an Obama which are inherently dishonest.
Trump also promised to reform the “Deep State”, a message that appealed to both left and right and won over some “undecideds”, while persuading nominal “progressives” to just stay home.
FACT #2 AMERICANS ARE BRAINWASHED.
After the embarrassment of 2016 the media, the “Deep State” and the Democratic Party settled down to create the most virulent hate campaign in history, aimed at demonizing Donald Trump. They realized that they had forgotten Goebbels First Rule: Repetition, repetition, repetition. Also his second rule: facts don’t matter.
First came Russiagate. Then Ukrainegate. The abortive attempt at impeachment — day, day out a steady stream of invective and ridicule. This mind-fucking consortium knew no bounds. With media credibility as low as 30% in some polls, 50% in others, the narrative had to drown out all others, shouted over and over again. Google was helpful, with a ranking system which made it difficult to find counter narratives.
This most successful attempt at mass brainwashing ever harnessed latent American racism in the same way that the Nazis made use of German antisemitism and anti-Slavism .
In this case it was Russophobia and Sinophobia Fully 60% or Americans now believed the Russians meddled in the 2016 elections — even though there has never been any evidence that they did, despite millions of dollar spent trying to prove the Putin was behind Hillary’s defeat.
73% of Americans also hold an unfavorable view of China, again without any basis in fact. More than half of Americans want to see Assange extradited and prosecuted.
These numbers show us that brainwashing works — even when Americans (roughly — don’t say they trust the media.
FACT #3 BOTH TRUMP AND BIDEN ARE INCOMPETENT POLITICALLY
Now, with this level of brainwashing, you would think that Trump had no chance at all.
While Trump actually fulfilled some of his campaign promises, unlike Obama, he could expect to get no credit for that with the Democrats controlling the media narrative.
He needed to run against the Media aggressively. Twitter was never enough — he needed to do something that got attention, namely rooting out the “Deep State”, starting with a purge of the CIA, Justice Department, and the NSA, followed by prosecutions of Hillary and Comey.
Instead, Trump allowed allow the Democrats and the Media to set his agenda.
Trump is a political reactionary, aka “conservative”. In terms of personality, he is simply “reactive”.
When the Media attacked him for being Putin’s BoyToy, the Donald slapped more sanctions on Russia, implicitly validating their absurd accusations.When the Democrats accused of being pro-Chinese, he accused the Chinese of creating the virus and hiding information and encouraged anti-Chinese sentiment in Hong Kong, again attesting to the authenticity of the criticism.
When the Democrats accused Assange of working for Russia to “hack” the DNC emails, he had the UK imprison Assange and is trying to extradite him in violation of all international and human norms.
In other other words, in terms of policy, Trump is really a Democrat, which of course he was once upon a time before he switched to the Republicans.
Ah, Donald, you’re a moron. You are just not that smart.
Then again neither are the Democrats.
They sank Berni in 2016 in favour of Hillary. Then they repeated that mistake in 2020, with Joe Biden, assuming that they could win just by manipulating poll numbers and the media. The definition of insanity — repeating the same mistakes and expecting…?
The Media propaganda machine has successfully redacted Biden’s past, which includes racism, war crimes, and sexual issues. So creepy pedophilic Joe’s optics are now pretty good. A nice older man. Moderate Hollywood-ish Grandpa. If the Dems had nominated Adolph Hitler, CNN would be describing Belsen and Buchenwald as halfway houses to Israel, with praise for Adolph's love of dogs.
But Ukrainegate exposed Joe and Hunter Biden’s corruption in a way that is hard to downplay, despite the FBI sitting on the evidence for a year and claiming it was all Russian disinformation, which implies, I suppose, the the FSB owns the Justice Department. Accusations of pedophilia in the Pedo’ Nation don’t help.
In addition, the Democrats have tried to run to the right of Trump by appealing to neoconservative ‘deep state” operatives — which undermine Biden’s “progressive” credentials to any “thinking” progressive. A lot of these people should be in prison. Their hatred of Trump validates him.
Like Obama, Biden is of couse making all sorts of promises — which the Oligarchy would never allow — like higher taxes on the rich. Hahaha….
Pushing mail in voting as a strategy might make up for a voter’s reluctance to brave COVID19 to vote in person, but technical difficulties could result in many of these votes not being counted, which would trigger the 12th Amendment — and a win for Trump.
Ironies abound. It was Joe Biden who helped weaken the US postal system. And mail-in voting benefits write-in candidates from third parties, even it some of the ballots are counted! In addition, a voter not enthusiastic enough to put on a mask and line up to vote, is probably not enthusiastic enough to go to the post office to buy stamps.
To my clients I say: this is the iffiest election in history. Trump should lose. But given the American system, he could lose and still retain the Presidency. It aint a democracy.
Not that it matters. There is no daylight between Trump’s policies and the Democrats. Trump and Biden and the rest of Congress serve the same masters. A thousand people at the top and a class of sycophants below them.
So, I advise my clients that it doesn’t really matter who wins. America will lose either way. Only the Chinese and the Russians will win. They have better systems and leaders.