Prigozhin: Russia’s Mad Fool — or Maskirovka?
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Was I wrong?
Was I wrong in my previous somewhat contrarian analysis of Prigozhin?
I argued that Prigozhin’s rants were tolerated because first of all they persuaded the West to think that Russia is weak when, in fact, it is strong — a misconception that encouraged the recent “counteroffensive” that has so severely depleted the UAF.
Secondly, Prigozhin’s attacks on the Gerasimov and the Defense Ministry always focused on logistics — the weak point of the Russian — and all other armies. His outbursts provide incentive for change.
But now we have what appears to be a Wagner mini-rebellion in Rostov-on-Don, which Putin has labelled “treasonous” in a time of crisis when Russia is at war — not so much with Ukraine but with the entire West.
What has changed?
The first thing is that Wagner has been withdrawn from battle to rest and also in the anticipation of a new contract with the Russian military which will put the PMC even more under the control of the FSB and Defense Ministry.
That means that Prigozhin needs to switch his military fatigues for a business suit — and probably endure diminished income, although he is already very, very rich.
Let us remember that the Russian oligarchs who took over Russia under Yeltsin were not born rich or powerful. In the anarchy that followed the breakdown of the USSR-they were just people who won the lottery and found themselves by accident in positions of advantage — with leverage.
That was the case with Prigozhin. He rose under Putin, but it was mostly luck.
Putin’s success has been largely due to his ability to sort out people in power and to control and use them to rebuild the economy and the state. If they don’t’ fit-they are gone.
Prigozhin has been useful so far, playing the role that Court Jesters and Holy Fools had in all feudal societies, including Russia’s where the tradition continued longest in Europe. They were comic relief — but pointed out real-life absurdities. From the mouths of babes — and fools!
Now, some think that this modern Mad Fool has gone a bit too far.
What he is doing, however, is still to Putin’s advantage.
Prigozhin is not going to prison, but his corporate wings will likely be clipped-a good example for other oligarchs, who think money means power.
The Defense Ministry, especially logistics, will get a further shakeup, to the benefit of frontline assault units like Wagner, the Chechens and others.
Putin’s goal is well-armed, well-run army of at least 600,000 in the Ukraine by the Fall
Prigozhin’s pseudo-insurrection actually helps. The Armed Forces will be boosted with people rallying to Putin’s call — without the need for martial law or forced conscription as in the Ukraine.
The “mutiny”- or whatever it was — is over, with a little help from Lukashenko of Belarus.
Prigozhin announced:
“We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of blood, now there is the possibility of blood being shed, understanding this responsibility we will turn around our convoys and return to our bases”.
Some will take this to imply that the Putin had told Prigozhin that if he didn’t persuade his men to return to their bases — or if blood was shed — and so far none has been — then the Russians would just wipe out the convoy from the air. Wagner would be no more.
BUT if Prigozhin proved his patriotism, his men would get security guarantees, probably better pay and conditions — and Prigozhin probably a bonus- while avoiding prison.
This is win-win. Wagner can be very useful in Minsk.
I have already mentioned some of the benefits for Russia from this incident. Resolution in this manner will strengthen Putin and help in his ongoing efforts to restructure the FSB.
It also sets an example, for Ukraine. Zaluzhny may be gone and the Nazis rule. But resistance is not futile.
Maybe I got something right for a change. And I will never get another job offer to work at CNN!
Of course, some people don’t agree with me. Simplicius and others of note for example.
But b. at MoA and Larry Johnson at Sonar 21 have similar lines of thought Check them out.
