The Failed NATO Nazi Offensive in Kharkov
Don’t believe what you read.
September 9
How can the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov oblast be a failure? The media, including nominally pro Russians sources such as SouthFront would have us believe that:
a.) the UAF offensive came as a surprise to the Russians
b.) the Russian command was incompetent, with only light forces to defend villages such as Balakleya, heavily outnumbered in event of attack.
c.) the Ukrainians are throwing their best men into the fight, well-equipped with foreign weapons, artillery and armor — and at least 20% of their army “foreign volunteers”, making their attacking force a modern NATO army.
d.) the UAF will sweep the oblast, take Iyzum and work their way south “liberating” Lugansk and Donbass.
The Marine Corps View
Scott Ritter writes of the recent UAF “offensive’ in the Kharkov oblast.
They (the Russians) have shown a willingness to save lives by giving up territory, allowing the Ukrainians to expend resources and capability without conducting a decisive engagement with Russian troops. Where required, Russan troops matched the audacity and courage of the Ukrainian forces with their own courage-laced tenacity, holding out in an effort to delay the Ukrainian advance while other Russian forces redeployed.
At the end of the day, it appears that Ukraine with exhaust its carefully gathered reserve forces before the bulk of Russia’s response engages. The Kherson offensive appears to have stalled, and whether by design or accident, the Kharkov offensive is shaping up to become a trap for the Ukrainian forces committed, who find themselves in danger of being cut off and destroyed.
At the end of the day, this counteroffensive will end in a strategic Ukrainian defeat. Russia will restore the front to its original positions and be able to resume offensive operations. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, will have squandered their reserves, limiting their ability to respond to a new Russian advance.
This doesn’t mean the war is over. Ukraine continues to receive billions of dollars of military assistance, and currently has tens of thousands of troops undergoing extensive training in NATO nations. There will be a fourth phase, and a fifth phase…as many phases as necessary before Ukraine either exhausts its will to fight and die, or NATO exhausts its ability to continue supplying the Ukrainian military. I said back in April that the decision by the US to provide billions of dollars of military assistance was ‘a game changer.”
What we are witnessing in Ukraine today is how this money has changed the game. The result is more dead Ukrainian and Russian forces, more dead civilians, and more destroyed equipment.
But the end game remains the same — Russia will win. Its just that the cost for extending this war has become much higher for all parties involved.
Scott Ritter
Ritter aside most of the folks at the redoubtable Moon of Alabama — the go-to place for information and discussion on America’s imperial wars, were were asking: “How could the Russians not know?”
How indeed! The UAF buildup was pretty obvious.
The Russians clearly had to know.
Ritter says the offensive has stalled — or will stall. Russian response has been notably very fast — if by a miracle.
No miracle...
In my opinion, the Russian command — which is demonstrably very competent — was — or least should have been — hoping for this “counter offensive”, just as the failed UAF attack in Kherson had been on their wish list in August.
The RF just didn’t know exactly when and where the Kharkov attack would come — just that it would be as big as Zelensky’s need to compensate for his tiny dick.
No matter — Kharkov is lower on their priorities than Donbass and Lugansk. First the south — then the East. One thing at a time — especially when you are vastly outnumbered by your enemy.
When the Ukies left, the safety of their “Maginot Grid” of fortified positions, they became vulnerable and could be obliterated at minimal cost to the Russians.
The forces in Kharkov were minimal, allowing for fast retreat if necessary and lower casualties. They were…. bait!
And the Ukies went for it.
The Kharkov region has lots of wooded area to hide in — but to take territory, the UAF has to come out in the open. Tanks and similar equipment are hard to move around in the woods and certainly a lot more visible than a grunt in camouflage gear. The Kharkov oblast is big with a lot of tiny villages. As the UAF moves, its supply lines become extended and vulnerable. If they take a highway, they can use it for transport, but the Russians still dominate the skies.
Russian aerospace has been very active, and the RF has long range artillery capabilities. The UAF have armor and artillery too but to use them, they expose them, inviting precision strikes. They are already losing men. A lot of men!
Who can find the war?
But, as I have said before, Putin is not fighting a “war” in the Western sense.
The SMO is about demilitarization, which is like a quail shoot
First you have to flush the quail out for shooting. Make no mistake, the UAF in Kharkov are birds when on the wing. Out of a force of, say, 30,000 how many will survive? How much equipment will they lose?
Denazification is something that the Ukrainians are doing very well on their own — through propaganda that is revealed as constant lies; atrocities including pogroms against ethnic Russians as occurred in Bucha, and general incompetence — putting untrained soldiers on the firing line without equipment or support.
Everything Zelensky does is for himself — sacrificing the Ukraine, its people and its soldiers indiscriminately to make his billions — making the Russians look very good by contrast. In areas that the Russians control, they will conduct referendums — and guess how people are going to vote! Zelensky will move to California and Beverley Hills.
Territory doesn’t matter
The Kharkov offensive has won the Ukraine a little extra territory, a few small towns, which don’t matter in the larger scheme of things and which it will lose again.
In any case, this “war” is not about territory.
Like most Westerners, I was brought up thinking war was taking towns and cities — gaining ground.
As a result, in one of my earlier articles, I wrote that I thought the Russians would move on to take the city of Nikolaev after Mariupol — and then Odessa.
I was wrong.
The Russians needed Mariupol in view of its strategic position relative to the Crimea and their supply lines. Nikolaev and Odessa and certainly Kiev don’t have the same strategic position. They can be safely left semi-isolated. When demilitarization is complete, they will fall naturally.
Wars, as General Grant demonstrated in the American Civil War, are really about destroying military resources first — then capturing territory and finally hearts and minds. The Union forces destroyed the Confederate Armies —occupied Southern cities — but weren’t so good at changing people’s way of thinking, which has persisted to this day. Putin won’t make that mistake.
Once you have destroyed a country’s military, comes occupation — and the public of the losers will come to your side only if you give them reasons to — jobs, livelihoods, freedom — and the sense that they are being listened to — not that they will change their fundamental cultural values and beliefs.
Fortunately for Russia, Ukrainian Ukrainians are not all tattooed Banderites even if they been taught to see Russians as monsters. UAF POWs are often surprised at the good treatment they receive from the Russians — medical care, food, and amenities. The stereotype can be countered. The Russians and Ukrainian speaking peoples are all slavs and fraternal peoples.
September 11
Two days have passed. The Russians are withdrawing from Izyum, redeploying forces to the South.
A “defeat”? Hardly. Now, that the UAF is out in the open with extended supply lines, its forces can destroyed from the air and by long range artillery and missile strikes. Losses are said to be huge — at least 2000 in the first 72 hours, along with more than 100 armored units. Some sources say that causalities are upwards of 5000 and a corresponding increase in equipment losses. Kharkov’s hospitals are overflowing.
Notably, the UAF has yet to gain complete control over the settlements of the territory it has taken. In the South, the UAF is continuing to lose.
