Ukraine: Spring Forecast Update
The war in Ukraine is progressing very much as I predicted.
The UAF made a strategic mistake in massing its forces in Eastern Ukraine. With the taking of Volnovakha and the cutting of the main highway that goes through the city, the UAF forces are effectively surrounded and cut off from re-supply.
However, they are trying to buy time by hiding in towns and cities, using civilians as hostages and shields. A war crime, of course.
The UAF still has substantial weaponry and have been firing missiles at the Donetsk City Center as a terror tactic. With missile supply short, they also been using Smerch missile cluster munitions, as they did in Kharkov when they tried to target a Russian tank convoy and managed to wipe out a residential building that was in the line of fire.
However, the Russians and East Ukrainian forces are rooting them out, trying to minimize civilian casualties.
After Zelensky reneged on his agreement to provide humanitarian corridors for evacuation, the Russians have set up a humanitarians corridor their own for the evacuation of Mariupol after "eliminating" the Azov fighters in the suburbs, who have been killing anyone who tried to flee.
The Mayor of the City has fled. Some sources say that the Russians sent in Spetsnatz in no-quarter night attacks. Others say it was Chechens who did the job. In any case, it does not appear that they were taking prisoners -- sending a message to the NeoNazis in the city center about what is sure to happen to them if they do not surrender. It appears to have been fast,lethal, and targeted with few civilian casualties, suggesting they knew who to hit and where and when.
The Mayor of the City has fled, indicating that the fall of Mariupol is imminent.
A couple of hundred buses have been requisitioned to evacuate civilians. After that, the Donetsk fighters and Chechens will go in and "eliminate" the rest -- with brutal summary justice for what they regard as war criminals.
The Mayor of the City has fled, indicating that the fall of Mariupol is imminent. After that you can expect Odessa to fall quickly, giving Russia full control of the Azov Sea.
In the meantime, the Russians have sent a message to the West completely wiping out a base that NATO had set up for foreigner mercenaries and weaponry in Western Ukraine near the Polish border with Kalibr missiles, The Ukrainians say minimal casualties (of course). Like the Japanese in WWII, they claim to be winning and will do so to the very end.
The Russians say at least 180 dead, apparently drawing on their excellent intelligence using “Ukie” collaborators. Whose right? The Russians? Or the Ukrainians? Judge for yourself.
Look at the photo, part of one of Andrei Martyanov’s wonderful article in the Saker.
This was a pinpoint accurate strike with multiple missiles. Amazing devastation. It's a warning. Imagine Kalibr missiles hitting an base in Poland or the Baltics. Anytime — day or night.
The West has responded, as it did in Syria when Assad was winning -- with a claim that Russia is preparing a chemical weapons attack. This is a PsyOp and a particularly stupid and arrogant one, which relies on total Western dominance of mainstream media. It’s not smart because it allows Russia to pre-empt it actually happening by calling it a "false flag" in advance as it learned to do in Syria. If there is a chemical attack — the Russians can say, “See? Just as we predicted”. The West will deny it. But internationally the seeds of doubt will have been sown.
That’s the trouble with propaganda. It is based on lies and deception but the truth is still here. And it will leak through in the end. There are alternative media. We saw that with Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria. It’s like a movie. Watch it once, you don’t notice the plotholes. Watch it over and over, you start to notice the plotholes and mistakes.
Clearly, resorting to such a PsyOp is a sign that Russia is clearly winning and that its operation is on schedule. And ,yes, it will be over by May.
Basically, we are in the mopping up stage. After that comes the really, really hard part. Rooting out the Nazis from Western Ukraine. At some point, ordinary Ukrainians are going to see the swatiska as a symbol of what it really is — and a lot more threatening than the Russians.
Russia will offer them a new constitution, a federal state, freedom from war — and especially economic freedom, as opposed to exploitation by oligarchs that followed the Maidan Coup.
Neutrality? Hasn’t hurt Austria or Switzerland .
