Ukraine: Update to Update #4 Day 21

This is an update to my update yesterday. Yes, things have happened — notably in Mariupol! More about that later.

Liberation of occupied Donbass and Lugansk continues—on schedule more than I had expected. It’s just Day 21.

In Mariupol, UAF forces have been cut in half and DPR and Russian and Chechen forces are closing in for the kill—quite literally, Liberation forces now estimate they will have cleaned out Nazi resistance in less than a week.

As a result, the Nazis staged a false flag — this time demolishing a theater. The Russians were predicting false flags of chemical attacks, which naturally pre-empted actual attacks of this kind. So the Nazis got creative. . Hundreds of women and children were first forced into the theater’s basement under gun point; — this presumably to provide photograph evidence and suggest huge numbers of casualties. The building was demolished. But not before the people were taken out.

This strategy has two purposes: first to add to the Western propaganda campaign, which needs constant evidence of Russian “atrocities”; maybe some the Nazis hope to work for CNN after the war is over. The second to avoid war crimes prosecution once the DPR takes Mariupol, not that the DPR will be much interested in taking prisoners at that point, and certainly not at all if people were really killed in the theatre bombing. A good account of this is found at Moon of Alabama, not just in the article, but in the comments. Read the comments carefully. On M of A, the comments are often more informative than the articles since they add a range of useful information.

If you look at the map (above) you will see that Eastern Ukraine is heavily populated — a patchwork of villages and towns. The UAF have dispersed their forces into townships seeking cover among civilians. This forces the Russians and DPR to thin out their forces, taking one settlement at a time. Yet, they have had made a lot of progress.

The UAF’s supply chains have been cut. They are isolated. As occupiers, they are hated by the local people who have become alienated even more by random killings and abuse. Surrounded and alone, UAF morale cannot be high. Their counterattacks have pretty much failed.

By contrast, the DPR are now better armed, thanks to captured NATO weapons — and also much better organized. They are fighting for their freedom — and winning .

The DPR units have reportedly taken the towns of Mikhaylovka, Stavki, and Vasilevka and are taking the city of Verkhnetoretskoye street by street. Similar reports from various organizations, indicate that the DPR have occupied Stepnoye and Taramchuk and are working on freeing the residential areas in Dokuchaevsk. Not all these reports are necessarily accurate but if only half of them are true, the trend is obvious. DPR: win. UAF: lose. Southfront’s video on the 20th day is instructive (here).

In the area of the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk, the LPR has also been very successful and are contesting the the north-west, north-east and east of Severodonetsk , freeing the suburbs apparently to provide evacuation routes for civilians before entering the city proper, as was the case with Mariupol.

In the Izyum—Balakleya region, the AFU is struggling to withdraw to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk. But from there, where? There is no escape.

The UAF also appears to be trying to be trying to withdraw from Ugledar. It has received some reinforcements and supplies there but certainly not enough to repel a determined assault by the DPR once they liberated a few more towns. If UAF forces are captured by the DPR, it is very likely that they will allow the locals to take revenge.

Russian artillery have destroyed the UAF artillery units in northern and eastern Saltovka while suppressing UAF artillery in the Kharkov area. In this regard, the UAF has lost almost all of its resources.

The Russians also destroyed the UAF’s Unit 732 base in Sarny, where it was storing Tochka-U missiles which it had been using against civilians in Eastern Ukraine.

Near Kiev, Russian paratroopers established a bridgehead on the Irpen. The Ukrainian “counter offensive” reported by their media never happened. Kiev is going to end up “kettled”.

Western Ukraine is, of course, another story compared to the East. And here the Russians have a different strategic.

As mentioned, last time, the Russians have excellent intelligence. They know the Western Ukrainians have been brainwashed by the Nazis for years and while not always sympathetic to the Hard Right, are, at the very least, ambivalent about the Russians, who must show they are not the monsters that they have been portrayed as.

Oh, and yet another biolab was discovered — this one near the village of Merefa.

It’s an interesting war. When is it over? May?