Ukraine: Winter Forecast
What Happens Next?
Winter is coming. Will the Russian Offensive bog down in the snow, like many in the West seem to think, as the Ukrainians decimate them with Excalibur guided munitions? Will Kiev get F16s and Patriot missiles?
Or not.
Are you “inauthentic”
Brian Berletic doesn’t think so. Berletic, who, as I have done, has gone by various pseudonyms, such as “Tony Cartalucci” is officially designated a “conspiracist”.
Eliot Higgens, the former operator of the notorious CIA/ NED funded Bellingcat disinformation site, tweeted this:
Accounts associated with New Eastern Outlook, Tony Cartalucci, and the Land Destroyer Blog have been suspended from Facebook and Twitter after reportedly being linked to a network of fake accounts and “coordinated inauthentic behavior.
Aaaaaaaaaaaah… “inauthentic” behavior!
Sounds vaguely like “inappropriate” behavior. Something naughty.
Nope. You don’t have to look for a new category on Pornhub.
“Inauthentic’ means “contrarian”, connecting the dots contrary to just accepting what you are told. In “Cartalucci’s” case it was linking the Thai student protests with the NED, although, given the NED’s involvement in almost every “color revolution’ for the last 20 years, that was something of a no-brainer. It’s a bit like remarking on a girl’s black T-back showing through her white yoga pants.
In the case of the Ukraine, Berletic has done a lot of solid research.
His recent YouTube video makes a number of excellent points. The Russians have a lot of experience fighting winter wars. Berletic cites Chechyna where the RF made substantial gains during the winter, which proves to be an ally enhancing aerial warfare.
In winter, the trees lose their leaves, exposing troops and equipment to aerial reconnaissance. The Russian’s new Iranian-supplied loitering drones are excellent for this.
The Russians have their own version of Excalibur — Krasnopol — — which, since uses laser guidance, is not vulnerable to jamming as is the case of the American counterpart. The drones just designate a target and a battery 20 kilometers fires a precision guided munition.
Excalibur won’t help the Ukrainians much, even if the Russians couldn’t jam its GPS frequencies, which is unlikely. If the Ukrainians have those frequencies the Russians will too!
Suddenly, the UAF is going to be very, very exposed. No leafy canopy to blind the drones.
NOT this!
But this:
The Americans in Vietnam had Agent Orange for an enemy without artillery or amor. The Russians have Nature on their side
In addition, the Ukrainians have been attacking civilian targets, not only in the DPR and LPR — but in Russia. The Donbass and Lugansk will likely vote to join the RF in the Fall, if only as a measure of protection against Zelensky’s not-so-golden horde. Then, attacks on them are attacks on Russia and the SMO can be automatically updated to “counter terrorism” if not actual war without violating Russian laws.
At the same time, the Russians have been knocking out chunks of the Ukrainian power grid, signaling it could be a very cold winter.
At the same time, ordinary Germans and others in the EU are going to freeze, if not go on unintended diets, with the German government expropriating Russian energy companies and inviting blow-back. As I wrote in my last article, this kind of national harakiri is something that failing societies often do, locked into a self-destructive cycle by delusional psychology and their own propaganda.
F16’s? It takes time to train pilots. Patriot missiles? Not effective for cruise missiles or drones as the Houthis demonstrated in their attacks on the KSA.
The Russians can afford to go slow. “Knock yourself out” they say to the Empire. And the Empire is doing exactly that. Now barely conscious from punching themselves in the head too often.
The Ukraine is a quagmire. But not for Russia. It’s the West’s, as all of their wars since 1945 have been.
The Tipping Point. It’s not “If”. It’s “WHEN”
In the case of the US, the November elections will have the Republicans in control of at least the House, given the indications. The Democrats are the incumbents and overall, they have proven themselves no better than Trump — in some areas better, of course — -but in others worse. Biden is widely seen as a failed leader.
As is Pelosi in the House. When did the White House and the House of Representatives become Care Homes?
In addition, pundits have been predicting major comeuppance for the US economy now for years now. It hasn’t happened.
The dollar is being buoyed up against the currencies of its vassal states, with European and Japanese capital flowing into the US. That, however, could easily reverse itself, with inflation, lower consumer spending, and decay of the middle class, not to mention the collapse of the industrial base and infrastructure.
Not this Fall probably. But January? Nobody knows. Dedollarization is ongoing and, at some point, it reaches critical mass.
In any case, political discontent is rising across Europe and in the US. Again, there is a tipping point.
Fall and Winter are going to be good for Russia — very bad for the “West” and worse for that fictive country that we call “Ukraine”.
Once it was a fantasy of Stalin; now it is a figment of the West’s imagination.
