War in Ukraine: March 23

It might seem like nothing much is happening in the war in the Ukraine .

But no obvious breakthroughs does not mean that the Russian drive has stalled, due to greater than expected resistance from the UAF or fierce resistance from its troops.

This is not the case. It’s not that kind of war and the UAF is performing pretty much as predicted, with the Nazis using civilians as hostages and continuing terror attacks on civilian centers in Donbass — and with conscripts keeping their heads down.

The Russian, DPR, and LPR forces hold all the cards. Much of the UAF’s weaponry has been destroyed and there is less and less available. Supply lines have been cut. UAF forces are surrendering, often without a fight, as at Berdyansk.

The ethnic Russian citizenry of the East Ukraine is reportedly carrying out sabotage against the UAF, despite the threat of collective retaliation. At least now they will not end up in mass graves.

The RF is consolidating its hold on the suburbs of Kiev and Kharkov. And continuing to destroy UAF bases and depots with hi-tech missile strikes, including the weapons depot in Orshev, 14 kilometers north-west of Rivno, which stored a lot of Western weaponry. Russian intelligence seems to know where the UAF is keeping its advanced foreign supplied weaponry and where it is housing mercenaries and giving these priority for elimination. And their capabilities must give NATO something to consider. NATO bases would be even bigger and juicier targets.

In Mariupol, the Azovs are not really following Zelensky’s orders to fight the last man as martyrs. Martyrs they are not. They are fighting where they cannot escape, fearful of the Chechens — and perhaps believing that NATO will rescue them.

With the UAF forces pretty much contained, the liberation forces in Eastern Ukraine are devoting more energy to helping the civilian population, while the Nazis hole up, running out of food and ammunition.

It is an effective strategy given the small size of the Russian forces.

For example, in Mariupol, the Azovs are locked down in the Azovstal plant. The Chechens have not made a serious effort to take the plant.

Last week I predicted Mariupol would fall in a week. With the Azovs effectively imprisoned in urban conclaves, the city really belongs to the DPR. But humanitarian relief for Mariupol’s citizens must come before eradication of the remaining Nazis.